430 | Fannie Mae's 5 Housing Predictions Of 2025 & NYAInsights

As we roll into 2025, there will be plenty of predictions coming from the talking heads, but when Fannie Mae puts out a list of predictions, we listen.

That's why we're diving into these predictions and breaking down how to think about them with Not Your Average Insights!

Join Gregg Cohen, co-founder of JWB Real Estate Capital, and show host, Pablo Gonzalez, as they dive into Fannie Mae's 5 Housing Predictions of 2025, and give you data plus perspective about:

- Why location matters more than ever when home sales are near 30-year lows
- Where investors can take most advantage of the bright spot in the housing market- new homes
- How multifamily's holding pattern affects other real estate asset classes
- and more!

Listen now to kick off the year with an inside track on what the all the experts will be talking about.  

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https://jwbrealestatecapital.com/nyai/

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https://jwbrealestatecapital.com/turnkey/ 

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Transcript

GMT20250107-173241_Recording_1496x964: 0:00

we're starting the year off. There's all these prediction things out there. And, our friend Fannie came out with a prediction. Fannie Mae came out with top five predictions for 2025. We're going to hit that are not your average inside style. And we're also going to talk about an alarming article that we just found. We're inserting this into the breaking news segment ish of, the Now Your Average Investor show about retirees. There's a new trend in retirement. Greg, you know what it is? The new retirement is no retirement. We're going to talk about that. Yeah, yeah. Welcome, welcome, welcome everybody to your weekly edition of the not your average investor show. I am your host, Pablo Gonzalez, with me as always, a man that I affectionately like to call GC because of his genius concepts, because he knows how to generate cash flow, because he's a great host, and because his name is Greg Owen. Say hello, Greg. Hello, everybody. Happy 2025. I am so excited to be with you today. We were, I feel like I haven't been in this studio with you for like a year. Oh, man, I've missed you, buddy. It's been a while, man. We had the Christmas break, then you had your ski trip. Oh, man. Good vacation over the holidays? It was the best. Not only we went skiing, but, you know, the skiing was amazing, but seeing my kids actually have confidence skiing and not fight me to go skiing and to do winter sports is a big win for the dad over here, so. Big win, buddy. Yeah. You know what's the big win is, the way that we always kick off the roll call kick off our show in 2025, which is, which is roll call. Call the first roll call in 2025. Y'all. We got Chris Lee kicking off 2025 from Fer Beach. We got the mystery man checking in from Kuwait. Danny Davies. Danny Davis, good to have you with the MVP. Checking in with the hell on everyone. Mr. Lee Bishop, we got the irregulars. Gary and Rosalyn Riley from Marietta, California. We regard you, we regard you. Who else we got? We got my buddy from Marietta, Georgia, Bob Wiesner in the house. We got the ringmaster in the house, Drew Barnhill with a good day to all. We got the man with the hockey arena named after him. Number one referral client for JWB. Mr. Roger Voisinette. Roger Voisinette. We got. Brick Kyle Holden. That's a new name for sure. Let me know if I'm pronouncing that correctly. Brick Kylie. Happy to have you. Welcome. Welcome. Welcome. Hope you're making a, a new 2025 resolution to hang out with us weekly with none other than the maven from the mountains of Denver, Leslie Wilson, Leslie Wilson. We got El Gran Amigo. That they do. Val Bell Shields Shields with a bonus that is amigos. Good to have you both showed Tony D's in the house. Wishing us a happy new year. Big day. Tony D's, Tony D's in the house. Anthony did up. We got, let me see it. Reggie Fonse, Reggie Fonse from laying in there. Welcome Reggie. Happy new year to you. We got Zenobia Lewis from Stanford. Don't Mount George. An Ovia is back. We got the Patron Santor of Northern Virginia. Michael Santoria. Michael Santoria. Good to have you Michael. We got the luck of the Irish in town. Kevin O'Brien. Kevin O'Brien. Good to have you Kevin. Back with us again. We got the man, everyone. Noahs in California. Noah Run. Noah Run. It's a big show. Noah's here. We've got the number two Steelers fan of the Not Your Average Investor show. My man, Lewis Hudnall. Go Steelers. Listen, it's 0 0 when you get to the playoffs. We're going to go for a big victory, even though we haven't seen one in like two months. Let's go. Rockland, California. We've got the world famous composer that you went to see this weekend. Oh, that you bought tickets for. I bought tickets to John's show. John, John Williams is here. And uh, he's coming. John Williams. All right. Honestly, we don't know because I've never met John in person. I don't know if this is the composer John Williams. Sometimes we just assume things, but John Williams is coming to the symphony in Jacksonville and I bought tickets and sent it over to Pablo and said, look who I'm going to see. John Williams from Long Island, New York. Greg just figured out that after buying tickets to the symphony, that John Williams is in fact the famous composer. I'm not the most cultured. I'm from Pittsburgh. I mean, what do you want? Jeff Pettyjohn from Missouri. Good to have you. Jeff Petty's back. We got the shaman in the house. Nadeem Shah. With his trademark. Good afternoon. Good morning. Good afternoon with everybody. Ed Lowery checking in. All right, Ed. From, he's, he's. Mr. 1031. Mr. 1031. Ed Lowery, is that his name? Well, you know, and we showcased his properties when we did the 1031 show. Mr. 1031. I just came up with that. Mr. 1031. Look at you. We got the early bird in the house. Dean Curry. Garrison Collier from Idaho. New name. New name, bitch. I read Idaho. Good to have you. Idaho. I like it, man. I want to get out there. Susan Parker in the house. Wishing us a happy new year. Good to have you back, Susan. Our favorite name to pronounce. Aaron O'Neill. Into the light. Good to have you as well. Greetings from the Seattle area from a Not Your Average guest. That's someone checking in from the text, and I hope it's Pamela Meyers. Could it be Pamela Meyers, our favorite smile from Seattle? Who knows? Who knows? Kaitlin Kitchens. JWB TV representing. Welcome, welcome. We got T from Tennessee. Alright, T Castor. Good to have you, T. Uh, who else we got in here? Susan Parker's back in the house. Mark Norman, speaking of case studies that we did recently. There we go. Alright, Mark Norman. Mark Norman from SoCal. Sunny and Windy SoCal. Good to have you. HTTN. Good morning and happy new year to UHT. Who else we got in here? Anya Sanchez checking in. JWB teammate. All right. Good. Oh, Hall of Famer. First baseman in San Diego. No sweaters needed. Jim Kirko. Jim Kirko in the house. Mohan Poteri from Fremont, California. Good to have you. Mohan. Misty and Troy Johnson. There we go. In the house. Great seat. Top ten. Top ten. Top ten attendees. Carlton Sherard from West Virginia. Carlton, your name. All right. And you guys brought, you know, bringing it today. We appreciate you all for being here. For Kylie said I pronounced her name correctly. Wow. Which is not normal for good year for you, Ben. It's a good year. Don't expect this to last, actually. Oh, look, look who we got here. We got the first family, the Patriarch and Matriarch, Ken and Carolyn Milleen, who we salute you. Good to have you as well. Who else? Man, this has got a long road. Right along. Raj is in the house. Alex Diaz is in the house from Tampa. Alex, good to have you. I feel like we got to start this show, or else we're going to be calling out role all day long. That's all right. All right. Good. Good problem to have. Yeah. Good. Good problem to have. Speaking of a good problem to have we've got a big announcement that's coming up next. We do. Yeah. We do. We are, uh. You know, for a long time, people were wondering when's the date going to be for summit. So we know that the not your average investor summit, the opportunity for us to all get together the one time of the year, we all come here in Jackson. We'll get together, the not your average investor summit. We know the dates are February 28th and March 1st. It's going to be a two day event, but we haven't let you know. When registration was going to open. And so we're here to announce that registration for this year's summit will be next Tuesday. It will be January 14th and that will be the show. The show is when we're actually going to announce the registration link. So thank you everybody for being here. Thank you for the new folks for being here. For those of you who want to be a part of the summit and all of you at this moment have the opportunity to be a part of the summit. Let me put that out there. You're going to want to be on the show next Tuesday because here's the deal. We had well over 125 people attend the summit last year. Intentionally, we're making it smaller this year to make it easier. Better for everybody to make it more personalized, to do more things together. So we're only opening up. We only have 100 spots for the summit this year. So it is going to sell out. If you want the best chance to get a ticket for the summit, make sure you're on the show next Tuesday. That's where we're going to open up the link. Let me explain though. It is for JWB clients only. That is part of the intentionality here. It is going to be for those folks who either own JWB turnkey rental properties already, or are under contract to purchase their very first turnkey rental property with JWB. So right now is a great time if you are not a client yet to get on the phone with our team, get through the process of putting a home under contract because you can attend Summit assuming that assuming you have one under contract. So super excited to see all of you for Summit, February 28th, March 1st, Remember, next Tuesday is when the tickets are going to open up for registration and hope to see all of you wonderful people for the show next Tuesday when we announce it. You are in mid season form, bro. What do you think? Great, great announcement, great announcement. I cannot wait, I cannot wait to finally, like, release these tickets. I can't wait to see who signs up. I got an email from Jen saying she already made her travel plans. I can't wait to run it back. It's, what, our fourth summit? A fourth? Yeah. It's a fourth summit. Yeah. Yeah. Here we go. Fourth summit. It just keeps getting better and better this time. It kept, it kept getting better and bigger. Now it's going to get better and smaller. We are, we are keeping it tight. We are staying true to our intimate nature here at the Not Your Average Vet Show. To grow a community, connect people keep it small, keep it intimate, and it's gonna be a lot of fun. It will be. Super, super exciting. More details to be shared. We'll share more next week and in the coming weeks. Yeah. Yeah. Love it. Oh, Leslie Wilson already booked her two plane tickets. Love it. I love that. Nadim is saying that he's coming for sure. Love that. Okay. Oh, obviously, Jane and Lee Bishop will be there to give everybody big bear hugs. Of course. Can't wait to see. Of course. Can't wait to see the MVP. Of course. All right. So that being said, GC, let's dive into insights, man. I, I want to get to those. I want to get to Alex Diaz is attending. I love that. I love it. I love that. All right, cool. So, Fannie Mae came out with these predictions, but first I want to talk about this little article that we just found this disturbing trend that is happening. And we were kind of, you know, prepping for the show, saw this new trend happening, this idea that the article title meet the rich retired boomers who are now ultra frugal because they are scared of going broke even after saving for decades. The TLDR GC, do you know what TLDR stands for? Too long, didn't read. Too long, didn't read about this article as they did this poll of 20, 000 folks over 50. What they realize is that right now, retirees are having to live largely below their means. They called out a couple of significant figures here. And it's the idea that most retirees right now, these retirees that they're polling are only, are first of all, realizing it is more expensive than they realize to live longer than they thought. And as a result, they're only drawing down about 2. 1 percent of their savings to live yearly in order to make it through when historically what everybody had been planning for is this idea of being able to pull off of 4 percent of your retirement income. So this point of view that we have talked about for a long time, that retirement is broken, that as boomers are aging into retirement right now, we're going to start to see these like big data points that are really concerning and we need a better way to retire is something that this article is talking about. GC, what did you take from it? Man, I tell you what it we continue to see articles like this over and over and over again And I think it's it is the narrative of this generation right now It spans multiple generations but it is this kind of like broken promise that like if you just Did things right and you worked hard and you saved that you would have You know You would be able to enjoy your golden years. You'd be able to have a decent retirement and people are not experiencing that now as our baby boomers age, this article talked about those folks specifically and you're seeing it go to me. It's like it goes from the spectrum of like sad to like downright scary. Because in that article, it talked about how baby boomers who had retirement savings were drawing down less than what typical retirees were drawing down. I'll kind of explain this. Like if you talk to a financial advisor, most of the times what they subscribe to is this idea of the 4 percent rule. They want you to build up enough capital, enough investable capital that when you get to your retirement years, You can survive. You can enjoy your golden years, drawing down for making 4 percent of a return and using that to fund your lifestyle. That's kind of the 4 percent rule in the goal. Well, now this study, which is over 20, 000 people. They're finding that people are not doing that. They're only pulling down about half of that. Now, part of that is because they don't have the ability to be able to spend that. Meaning they don't, they don't have enough capital to be able to live off of that. You know, like the principle. Yeah. Yeah. They don't have enough to be able to take 4%. Think about the principle as being able to live on eventually. But another part of that is that people are downright scared. There's a lot of those 50 year old and older folks who probably have the ability to draw down 4%, but they're like, listen, people are living longer. Yeah. Right? Healthcare costs are going up. Yeah. Other costs are going up. We live in inflationary times and people are concerned about it. So, either they can't do it, or they probably can, but they're scared, and neither one of those is a good experience. And I think that's where our little circle of the internet and our little circle of community and the world can really help people. Because I try to share with folks that investing in single family rental properties, it's not just about that home that you're investing in, it's not just about that resident who you're improving their lives to. It's also a mini retirement plan for yourself. Right? So that's just, that's probably the best end of the spectrum. You got me started on this, so I'm going to keep going. Yeah, yeah, go for it. The downright scary part of this is that in this article, which you guys, maybe we'll put the link in there so you guys can read it. What it talks about is that, and I'm going to make sure I get this right, 30 percent of folks who are 65, or older are economically insecure. And 43 percent of 55 to 64 year olds had 0 of retirement savings. in 2022. It's the last time that they had this data. So almost half of the population has zero retirement. So now we're going from just sad, maybe you worked hard and you saved and you had retirement, you just don't get to live it out, to now like, what is half of our population going to do as we all get older and healthcare costs continue to rise? And so it is, it is a very big problem. I want to get very loud about this problem because It's one that we have to solve and there are better ways to solve the problem. And there are worse ways to solve the problem. Investing in single family rental properties is a great way to take control of it for yourself. And just think about this little retirement account that you're starting with each rental property. And to your credit, you see, you stayed up late and started crunching a whole bunch of numbers because you really want to illustrate this, right? But before, before we even get to that, the idea that folks are folks have been promised, right? So there's, there's those statistics of the folks that aren't saving. That's really, really concerning, right? But the, to me, the, the one that's really terrifying is the people that did it. Did what they were supposed to do, right? Like somebody told him, Hey, you get to this point, you can live off of this 4%. You know, that should happen. And something we talk about a lot is this idea of not being the most vulnerable at your most vulnerable meaning. In these traditional retirement accounts, I think Lee said this best. He said, they tell you to save, save, save, save, save. So you can spend, spend, spend, spend, spend. What they don't tell you is that that piece that you're going to spend, spend, spend, spend, spend from all of a sudden goes into this like bucket where like, you can't touch this, right? Like you can't mess this up because it is too risky to like change strategy here. And if you are going to do it, you're going to take this like giant tax hit. And all these different things, right? So like you all of a sudden become beholden to these decisions that you've been making for so long, whereas when it comes to saving up for retirement via rental properties, as the. Just like, just like the traditional retirement accounts, it gets better with age, but you also have more options the better it gets, right? When you have a home that's fully paid off or close to being paid off and your mortgage estate, or, and you have this like mortgage that's leveraged in yesterday's money and you're collecting today's rents, meaning it's highly cashflow positive and all these different kinds of things. You don't have to sell that thing. You to increase your options, right? Like you can refinance, you can take home equities lines of credit. You can, you know, you can do, you can 1031 exchange and not take a hit, not take a tax hit into a market that you have more cashflow or more growth or whatever you're trying to do. To me, that's the thing. Like these folks are getting to retirement age. They're realizing, Hey, that number that I saw in the ING commercial, I can only take 1031. Half of what they were promising me I could take from that number because of these different things. And now I'm just up the creek without a path, right? Like as opposed to this idea of holding real estate and having the options in your pocket. That's, that's, that to me is like the underreported thing of all of this stuff. It's like, they're just teaching you to trap yourself later in life. It's unfortunate and many people don't know how to solve the problem, right? I think it's, it's one of the, the things that I want to do the most to help our clients. Our clients, many of you are already understanding this and that's why you're taking action and buying, buying properties. But there's a whole population out there that doesn't understand what we're going to do. And as a country, generalizing, we're just like, I don't know. But the problem is, The finish line is so much closer now, right? We've done that for 20, 30 years. But you know, it's, it's getting to a point where we have to solve it or else, you know, quality of life in the country is going to change. And so the, the opportunity that I offer to all of you is to take control. Yep. And there isn't another asset class that is. that has, you know, five ways for you to profit, not just banking on speculative nature of an investment and home prices going up, right? You've got your net rental income going up each and every year, the consistency, the fact that 97 percent of years home prices have gone up in Jacksonville and You know, home prices across the country, excuse me, rent prices across the country have never, ever gone down in value. Right? So you have consistency of this asset. At the end of the day, it boils down to control. You have the opportunity to take control of your future retirement. Yep. Got it, man. And you know, you, you, you spoil alert. We're having a special webinar on Thursday. Yes. Right. We're having one of these like fortune builders, special webinars, Joanna, I don't know if you have the, the registration link that you can share or Are we driving to where's the, we can go to the events page because the, the events page has the link for the fortune builders webinar. That'll be Thursday at two 30 Eastern. If you'd like to join us for the fortune builders webinar, we're going to go a little bit more in depth than this. Yeah. We're going to go a little bit more in depth in this idea of like how one rental property can just change your life. Right. Like just putting one of them. Yeah. Is its own little mini retirement account, like you just said, right? Like it hedges against these issues. It doesn't mean that you can't build retirement in traditional ways, but having this will give you these like certain options. And Greg, I think in preparation for this, you started doing a little bit of math about how, well, tell me, tell me about the math that you did. Well, this is why I bailed on you for running this morning at five o'clock, like we were supposed to run this morning. It's because I got a little passionate about this last night as I was preparing for this. And I was like, you know what? I wonder if I could put together the numbers to show if somebody 30 years ago, you know how they ask questions to, we ask questions to ourselves. What would you tell our younger self? What would we tell our selves 30 years ago? Right? Well, if you're trying to solve the retirement problem, Maybe one of you would have said 30 years ago, this is what I would have liked to have done. And so I said, well, if I was going to do that, let me put the numbers together. Estimates, of course, but how much would a Jacksonville rental property have cost 30 years ago? What were the rents 30 years ago? I'll use some assumptions. I'll use some really great data that we pay for as well. And then today in retirement, how much just net income is that kicking off for the year? And so I put the numbers to it. Again, I'll share all the numbers with you on Thursday, if you want to see it. But, you know, ultimately a property 30 years ago in Jacksonville cost about 73, 000 as the median income. When you boil it all down, that property, if you just bought it and thought about it, thought about it, like you think of your 401k, right? Thought about it as a retirement account. Today, that property would be kicking off over 10, 000 a year and net income. So 10, 000 net income, take home income. And most of that will probably be largely tax deferred as well. Okay. So then I started thinking, well, all right, we know there's a big problem out there. We know that the new retirement is no retirement. I actually saw the stats and it said that about 20 percent of Americans aged 65 and older are working today. And that is double the amount of Americans aged 65 and older that were working about 30 years ago. So that means a lot of folks are now taking up part time gigs. or full time gigs to be able to be able to have enough money to live in retirement. So then I said to myself, okay, well, what's the most common part time gig for somebody on retiring, going back into the workforce to get? And I thought of a Walmart greeter. So then I looked up how much does a Walmart greeter part time Walmart greeter earn each year? And the number comes out to about 13 grand a year of which you get taxed on by the way. Yep. Yep. Yep. So my requires you to be inside of a Walmart requires you to work. So then so to bring it all together I thought well if somebody 30 years ago could have convinced themselves to buy a Jacksonville rental property What they would have been doing to the 30 year old self later on in life their retirement self is they just would have bought them 840 hours a year of additional time that they did not have to go and work at Walmart 840 hours a year that they can spend with their grandkids or in whatever passion that they would like to invest their time in. And that is the beauty of buying and holding a single family rental property. I love it, man. I can't wait to get into that on Thursday. So if you want to register for that, go to the JWB website, you go into the events page, you can register for that webinar. We're going to go in detail on that case study of just one property. what that can do. Joanna just shared it in the chat. So you can just click into the chat. You see, before we get into the top five trends that Fannie Mae is predicting, a couple of quick questions. Gordon Butler asks, are people that are private lenders to JWB able to attend the summit? Gordon, no, unfortunately this, we're going to have such demand for our turnkey clients to be there. Again, it's limited to only a hundred. So it is for those who are either turnkey clients already, meaning you already own a JWB turnkey property, Or you're under contract to be able to buy your first one. So it might be a great time to talk to our team and see if maybe taking some of your private lending capital with JWB and turning it into a rental property might be the right move for you as well. Got it. And Gregory Roberts here has a complex question. I think we can maybe give him some advice if I can get this right. What are your thoughts regarding a HELOC where the financial institution practice is to deposit funds directly into your account versus a HELOC where you withdraw as you need them? When I applied for HELOC, I, I was offered only a direct deposit into my account versus just having the ability to withdraw the account, just like a credit card. I am making the assumption that direct deposit means interest starts from the date the funds are deposited in my account versus having a line of credit to withdraw from as I use the funds then charge interest. In other words, direct funds today with interest starting today versus I withdraw funds in three months. So interest starts in three months. so I think I know where, where Gregory's going. Great name, by the way. Yeah. Great name. Solid name. Yeah. So the, the thing is there, there's a he lock, which generally means that you withdraw and pay interest when you withdraw. And then there's typically a a loan a refinanced loan. and the biggest difference is do they put the money in your account day one, which is that refinance that loan. There's a couple other variations of names, but we'll just call it that one. Or is it in your account? And then you can draw on it when you see fit, when you see a great investment opportunity or what have you. All things in a vacuum, I, we would all prefer the idea of withdraw and pay interest when you want. Right? So, if there is that option, and it doesn't cost you anything, That's what I would prefer. However, this is part of a bigger discussion Gregory. So one thing I would suggest is to get on the phone with an expert get on the phone with my team. We're ha we're happy to help you understand how to be able to use those funds in a way to make an investment that can perform for you. And if you were watching the show, I think it was two weeks ago, we did the show on home equity lines of credit. Maybe three weeks ago. Three weeks ago. We did a full home equity line of credit show. Yeah I don't know if that one's on, I don't know if that's on replay available or not. Either way, reach out to the team because there's a whole gamut of things to look at before deciding which loan you're going to do. Is it a loan where they put the money in your account and then you start paying interest on it? Sometimes that actually makes sense, right? Or is it the loan, which is a HELOC, which is where they say you kind of got a credit card almost. And they say it's there if you need it, but we're not going to charge you interest until you use it. Either one might be the right answer for you. But all things in a vacuum, if I have the flexibility and I don't have to pay the interest until I use it, I definitely want the eWalk. There you go. Good answer. By the way, we have over a hundred people on today, right? So like I know a lot of new names. The chat goes really fast as you can tell, right? Because there's a lot of people here that are friends and you're talking to each other. So if you definitely want something to like catch my attention, use the Q& A function like Gregory did. He says, Thank you, Greg. Gregory. All right. Love that. Thanks, Greg. All right. You see, let's jump into these. Oh, by the way, you had mentioned chat with JWB. com, right? Gregory, that's a great place for you to like book a call and like have those questions answered. Again, if you are looking to put a mini retirement account into your retirement account, like your own little nuclear reactor inside of your, inside of your retirement account, go to chat with JWB. com. And you can pick a time to Get on the phone with your team. There's also a text number, which I have memorized now. I saw you write it down. There we go. 904 293 0341. You can text a question. You can text a request to set up a phone appointment. You're going to talk to a real human on my team. My team is going to be there to respond. So 904 293 0341. If we could put that in the chat, there we go. Johanna's amazing. Johanna's amazing. So thank you guys. That's there for your, as a resource for you. All right, let's get into the trends report. This is, this is what content creators do the first week of the year, Greg. They make a top five list and they talk about it. Yes. We didn't do that. We're taking Fannie Mae's top five list. I love it. Are you ready for it? Let's do it. Trend number one that Fannie Mae is predicting trending. Average mortgage rates will decline modestly, but remain above 6 percent with likely bouts of volatility. You, Greg, Mr. I have 400 rental properties and I managed 6, 000 homes around the Jacksonville market and a billions of dollars worth of real estate. What do you say about that trend? I think they know what they're talking about. I mean, it's interesting, you know, we have talked a lot about interest rates over the course of the last two years. And I think as soon as people start to feel like something's going to happen with interest rates, something changes. Right. And I think, you know, the, the dialogue really three, six months ago was like, Listen, the Fed has signaled that they are going to drop the Fed funds rate multiple times over the course of 2024 and 2025. I think it was either four or five times that they were predicting in 2025 that they would drop it. They've since pulled that back. And they have taken a more mitigated approach, and I think they've said that they're expecting a couple of Fed funds rate, uh, decreases. But you're starting to feel this all across the, the spectrum that, you know what, rates are probably going to go down. I think everybody believes that, which is what Fannie Mae says, but they might not be going down as low as we all might have hoped three months ago, or six months ago, which is good to talk about, okay? So why is that happening? Well, This is why it's so important to pay attention to shows here in our community, as well as the financial reports that maybe you don't really want to pay attention to. Like, CPI, right? Like inflation, right? Like the jobs report, like other, you know, really important reports that over the course of history, haven't gotten enough love. They haven't gotten enough love. But you know, inflation is, uh, is higher than we want. And it's sticky. And we've talked about this for a long time. It's going to take time to get inflation down. So when that's happening, they are less likely to decrease rates. You know, growth for our country is still really high. So it's interesting. We all want growth for our country, but growth for our country makes it unlikely that the Fed is going to drop the Fed's funds rate. And when these things are happening, it makes it less likely when inflation's high. And when growth is high, it makes it less likely that investors like us or money managers who are controlling large swaths of money are going to invest in 10 year treasuries. And that's actually what moves the needle for our interest rates. So our interest rates, our 30 year interest rates on our mortgages are more correlated to what is the yield on the 10 year treasury. So you've got all of these macro factors that are going on and they're leading to keeping the yield on the 10 year treasury elevated. That means there's not enough demand for 10 year treasuries because the yield and the price are inverted. So, long story short, I agree. I think that rates are probably going to be higher than what we were saying three to six months ago. But let's just talk about it in real terms. Rates are probably still coming down. And as a real estate investor, one of the most tried and true things that we have seen over the course of history is that When rates come down a significant amount, that means that the table is set for increased home price appreciation. So, I looked at it. Interest rates right now on 30 year mortgages are about 7 percent right now. They were down to about 6 percent in September of this past year in 2024. But right now they've ticked back up to about 7%. What Fannie Mae is predicting, Is that rates will go down to about 6. 1 percent by the end of 2025. And they're saying an average rate for 2025 will be 6. 4%. So long story short, they're still predicting that rates are going to drop interest rates. I mean, like our 30 year mortgage interest rates. They're still going to drop about a half point to maybe a full point depending on where you are in the time of the year. And that still represents a great opportunity to buy before likely prices going up. We do expect the Jacksonville market to normalize, continue to normalize next year, which means home price appreciation should be here for the Jacksonville real estate market as we go into 2025. So there's still an opportunity to buy before interest rates are going down. And I'll also point out one other thing, you know, JWB has been offering incentives to buy down interest rates. And many times the question was like, Well, JWB, does it make sense to take the buy down incentive? You know, our interest rates closing our clients are closing at about five and a half percent for their mortgages, which is lower than what you're finding out there. Part of that is because of the incentive that JWB has been offering to buy down the interest rates for our clients. So as the narrative has come more about interest rates maybe not going down as much as we all wanted, the value of those incentives and the value of that five and a half percent interest rate, let's say, that you could lock up today is even more. Because it's less likely that you're going to refinance that in a year or even two years. Yeah. So it's a great time to take advantage of those incentives because it's likely, let's say if you get to close at five and a half percent, that's likely the best rate on an interest rate that you'll be seeing for some time now. All right. So takeaway is you agree with this trend. We still see long term interest rates, they will be going down. And even though they're not going down as much as we thought that we were, they're still going down a bit, right? Which means that we see home price appreciation happening. Cause that's what tends to happen. And the opportunity right now in this kind of environment is that if you're thinking about investing buying down the interest rate is even more attractive right now because you get to lock in tomorrow's rates today and tomorrow's gonna be a little bit further away also. Mm-hmm. So that you are locking in that appreciation and that rate and the cashflow at the same time. Yeah. Okay. And absolutely. And then the, the other thing to add is, guys, we should be tuning in and talking about interest rates. because you know what? It might change next month. The outlook, what the fed says, what the wonderful financial reports that we looked at say inflation, jobs, wage growth, everything. It might change, might be a new story next month. That's just the world we live in. Volatility is what they're saying around the interest rate, right? It might happen. All right, cool. Prediction number two from our friend, Fannie. Existing home sales will remain near 30 year lows, but location matters. GC, what do you say about that? I, I agree. I don't see any other way you could look at it. You know, lack of supply is the reason for low existing home sales. That's been the story for the past few years since the market, the real estate market went on fire, you know, post the initial onslaught of COVID just to give you a measurable that. Are not your average investors in this community. We know it very well. I report on it at least every quarter. It's called months of inventory. That's the measurement for how much inventory is out there relative to the number of home sales that are happening. That's kind of like your metric to understand supply and demand in real estate. So just to reinforce the point for lack of supply, our months of inventory in Jacksonville here is about the same as the as of December, is 3. 9 months. So, that's low. Six to seven has historically been a median market, meaning an equilibrium market, meaning you would expect, on average, normal home price appreciation. So anything less than six is a sign that you would expect, in a vacuum, you would expect higher than normal home price appreciation. Let me, let me slow you down a little bit, G. C., because I see that we have a lot of people on, so maybe there's folks that haven't been, and we got a bunch of new names, right? So, you jumped immediately into this idea of, like, supply being the constraint, right? Like, the prediction being existing home sales will remain near 30 year lows, but location matters. What you are saying without saying it is yes, existing homes are low, but not because people don't want to buy homes. It's because there's less homes on the market because people aren't selling homes. I'm so glad you took a moment to talk through that. Yeah. I'm seeing so many articles out here that are talking about how, you know, Existing home sales are slumping and this, this, you know, existing home sales are falling off a cliff and it's, it is, it may be data, but it's the wrong perspective. Yeah. The, it's not like there's a lack of demand for existing homes. There is a lack of supply for existing homes. Yeah. So, and I really feel like in any other asset that you're talking about or any other business, if you're like, Listen, I just don't got enough of the stuff, but if people want them, you'd be like, well, man, sales are on fire. But for some reason in real estate and in existing home sales, we look at that and the talking heads in the media out there talk about how existing sales have fallen off a cliff. But the problem is there's just not enough supply. It is not a demand problem. It's a supply problem. And when I think of that as an investor, I think, oh, okay, things have slowed down, but. I want to be the person holding the asset that is in low supply. Whereas if it was in low demand, I wouldn't want to be the person holding the asset. Exactly. Right. So yeah, existing homes will slow down. That's not bad for investors, right? Because the supply is constraint. You mentioned another thing that if someone hasn't been hanging out with us while MOI, months of inventory, and that's this indicator of like the supply demand dynamics happening in the Jacksonville market. It means that right now we're at 3. 9 and historically, it's at between six and seven were below average months of inventory, which means that even though supply is low, the demand is still higher historically than the supply demand like kind of like a equation, which means that we expect home prices to not just continue rising, but continue rising higher than the average rate that it normally rises. If it's an equilibrium. Well, I'm going to pause you there because as far as how much home prices rise, you can't only look at MOI in a vacuum, which is not the way that you should be making decisions and not the way that we look at the real estate market. One indicator that you would look at as far as what home prices are going to do is what's my MOI. If it's less than six, you, you would say, okay, well maybe I'm thinking higher than normal home price appreciation. Normal home price appreciation in Jacksonville is 4. 9%. So, a normal market is somewhere, call it around 3 5 percent of home price appreciation. So, just because MOY is lower than 6, there's other factors we have to look at. So, I wouldn't necessarily say I'm expecting higher than normal home price appreciation. I think a lot of that is dependent on what interest rates do. And if interest rates stay higher for longer, then maybe it's not 4. 9%. If interest rates come down, like we were thinking they were three months ago, maybe it's higher than 4. 9%. So the point is MOI is one tool to help us understand what the real estate market is. And it's low. And that is an indication that there is interest rates. under supply, which is what we're seeing in the existing housing market. Got it. So that is, that is this idea of home sales will remain near 30 year lows, right? Like we're saying this is a supply issue, not a demand issue, but the article also says, but location matters. So tell me what you think about the location. Really interesting thing. So not all So, real estate markets are created the same. And we've said this for a long time, but there's some really good data to show this. So Fannie Mae reported that of the top 100 metros, only 75 of them had growth, had home price appreciation in Q2 and Q3 of 2024. So I'll say that again. Out of the 100 top metros, only 75 had home prices go up in Q2 and Q3. Well, that sounds like a 75 out of 100, you typically would say that's kind of a big number. That just shows that generally home prices go up in most places. But in reality, that's a low number compared to historical. So what that means is that 25 out of the 100 top metros actually had prices go down in Q2 or Q3 of last year. So what this means is that your market matters. Where you invest matters. We've done some case studies here just to show that investing in a growth market like Jacksonville with low supply not only produces more positive cash flow, but it can mean hundreds of thousands of dollars of additional growth when you hold onto the asset for a full market cycle. And this article and this point Substantiates that, right? Look for markets where there is a low supply or a normal supply of housing relative to demand. Some markets out there have MOI above 6, above 7, and population is leaving those markets. That's not a place that I want to be investing, right? Look for a market like Jacksonville. Jacksonville is the only market that has prices below the U. S. median. We're the only market that has home price appreciation greater than the U. S., home price appreciation, excuse me, rent price appreciation more than the U. S., and that we have population growth over 2 percent a year for the last five years. Only market that has those four things at the same time. Only market in the country. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Only market. So if you're thinking about where to place your dollars, Existing home sales are going to keep supply low, for sure, but you also want to be looking at these things like population growth, median income growth. Right? Jacksonville obviously wins there. So at the end of the day, low supply of housing, of existing homes, is risk mitigation for all of us. A low supply of housing, a low supply of something that people want, means that you're going to have a high floor for pricing. And that's why values, home prices in Jacksonville continue to appreciate last year. Even though interest rates were six and a half, seven, seven and a half percent. It's because of the low supply of housing. So when you read low supply of housing, don't equate that with, there's anything wrong with sales. Look at that and say, ah, risk mitigation. That's how I know that my rent and my home prices are going to stay strong. Good stuff, GC. Before we move on to the third trend here, Celia Carmo has a question. You indicate rents are going up. When looking at my current JWB properties and looking at new possible purchases, the rents appear to be low, causing low or negative cash flow. What am I missing and not understanding here? Celia, it would be a great opportunity to get on the phone with my team so we can look at those numbers. Most of the time, so I'll give you the stats. Rents are up about one and a half percent year over year in Jacksonville for single family rents. Many times clients forget what their rents were either in previous years, or they forget what their rents were when they bought the asset. So I think it would be a great opportunity to see you to get on the phone with my team We'll do what's called a performance review We offer this for all of our clients who generally do it about once a year and we'll break down and we'll look at your rents compared to what they are Today and compared to what they were the last time the home was rented out and also compare it to the time that you bought the home But macro wise rents are going up I will add one thing. Celia, we might find that your rents for your specific property are actually lower this time than they are, than they were last time. That might be the case. That can happen in rental properties. Even when rents are going up for the entire market, there may be times that we look at you, Celia, and we're like, listen, we know what the supply and demand is in that neighborhood at this moment, right? We're going to get very granular. And we could suggest to you that say, listen. I understand that we would like for rents to go up always, always, always, but it doesn't work like that. There's no investments that that happens. And so we might actually suggest and say, you know what, maybe it's 25 less this year than last year, right? In our last quarterly market update, I shared with all of you that while rents are going up this year and they're up one and a half percent, We can call this a soft rental market compared to the normal. The normal rents tend to go up about 3. 6 percent per year. So what do you do to best serve your investors in a soft rental market? We prioritize occupancy over rent increases. because vacancies hurt, right? So that's just a little snippet of the conversation that I'm sure my team would love to have with you, Celia. So I would really recommend just sending an email to doesn't need to. Caitlin's in the chat with her and she's her portfolio manager and she's reaching out to schedule a time to chat with her. Done it done world class customer service. Let's go. Let's go on to the next one. Third trend from our friend, Fannie. New home sales will remain a bright spot in the housing market where in parentheses where they can be built Yeah, what do you say about that? You see my new home sales. I think it is a spot on Prediction there. I think the ability to buy new to buy any house right now is tough, right? We just talked about how existing sales are low, right? So supply is an issue for investors out there So the ability to buy housing at all is a great opportunity right now. That's when we look at months of inventory, it's just not that easy for people out there. But the ability as an investor to buy a brand new construction home is a great thing, right? We know, especially as new investors new investors tend to tend to go to new construction because you're scared of maintenance and vacancy costs. And I get it, right? And it looks, it's appealing, right? It's a brand new home. So I get it. But what I can say is new construction is a great way to get into investing in rental properties because it decreases the chances and the frequency of the most painful parts of owning a rental property. What are the most painful parts of owning a rental property, Padra? When there is these unforetold maintenance expenses and like these bigger ticket capital items that you got to do every once in a while. Yeah. Maintenance, vacancy. Vacancy. Well, in new construction homes, we see slightly less maintenance and vacancy costs associated with new construction. Makes sense. Things break less when they're brand new. So I think this is a bright spot in the housing market. I think this is a bright spot for investors to be able to buy new homes. new construction homes. Over 90 percent of homes that JWB has available right now for turnkey investment properties are brand new construction. And I pulled some, some cool stats from the article I thought would be kind of, kind of cool too. So not only is it a great time to buy new construction, but overall, if I'm thinking macro here, the cost of new construction is not so much more than what it, than existing homes. There's actually some data here. So from 2015 to 2019, new construction homes had a premium of 28 percent over existing homes. That's kind of what we always thought. There was a premium to buy new construction. Well, in 2024, the premium was only 4%. So the premium of new construction to existing is only 4%. It's decreasing. And part of that is because there's such a lack of supply for existing. And people want to buy them. So it's pushing up the prices. And the other thing, which is relevant to all of you as a new Rental property investor is there's a push to make new construction homes smaller because of the affordability crisis So JWB's new construction homes are smaller today even than they were in previous years and what that does for all of us is Allows us to acquire properties at a lower purchase lowest area of entry. Yeah, so Great time to be a buy and hold investor, either in existing properties, but definitely new construction properties too, especially if you're somebody who's a little bit nervous of your first time, you want to limit maintenance and vacancy. Great time to get in and keep those maintenance and vacancy costs lower. Yeah, I think it's great, man. You know, I think most people, and since we have a bunch of new listeners here today and new community members, you think of, You think of investing in rental property and you're thinking of doing it with a, with a investor that's giving you like a property deal sheet here, a property deal sheet there because they're finding a property or they're bringing something to market, you know, I think it's like really unique that a JWB is able to offer existing homes and new construction homes, all vertically integrated under one roof with the same property manager. Right. But like, What's really unique that JWB has done, which is why you've been on the front page of the Wall Street Journal a couple of times, or at least the first time that you were on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, is that you all figured out that you can bring to market new construction homes in urban infill lots. Meaning, Most new construction built to rent single family homes in the industry are these like big tracts of land that developers find and build like a hundred homes in and bring them to market. Those are generally suburban homes, right? Like they're not close to the city center. In Jacksonville, you have the opportunity to buy these like one off new construction homes that are close to downtown. Close to these areas that are already populated. Not needing a whole bunch of people to move there to like, provide the infrastructure for whatever. It's another de risking of hedge and another kind of like, attachment to the upside of the new construction off ridge that uniquely exists in Jacksonville because it happens to be the city that has A, the space close to the urban center and B, the innovative company that like, figured out how to do this thing. Yeah. I mean, are you going to go and buy a single family home anywhere around New York City? You know, anywhere around Atlanta, anywhere around, you know, Dallas, right? No, you, you don't have that ability. Well, this is what part of what, why we bring everybody to summit is to help everybody see how what's going on in downtown Jacksonville and that your rental properties that you're investing in are located in like a 5 to 10 minute drive of downtown. Yeah. And then we put the data behind it because, you know, a lot of people get excited about, okay, I'm ready to buy a rental property. I want it to be next to the next big thing. I want it to be next to the next shopping center or the next amenity or even the next, you know, the best schools. Yeah. And I totally understand where they're coming from, but really what they want is to buy an asset and they want to have growth based on what's going on around it. Yeah. Well, I'm here to tell you the best way to hitch your wagon to growth and owning a rental property is to invest in rental properties that are right next to a revitalizing downtown. And the data supports it. I ran the numbers. So for revitalized cities like Denver, Nashville, Austin, Tampa from 2013 to 2023, those revitalized cities saw 23 percent more home price appreciation than the national average. So when cities become revitalized, which is what is happening in Jacksonville, and it's what we get to show you as a part of the summit, all of the properties that are right around it, that produce positive cashflow, that are producing wonderful living environments for our residents, are going to indirectly benefit a lot. from what's going on right next door in downtown Jacksonville. And you just don't see that combination of things in other metros across the country. Awesome, awesome. Alright, we got two more trends. There's a bunch of really good questions here. I want to get into the questions when we're done with the trends, but there is one here from HCTN that's kind of related to what we're talking about. And we like to highlight anybody that's asking bad news here, right? Because it, it's Clarity and, and transparency here is important, right? So HCTN is asking, looking at my portfolio with JWB, the property valuation has gone down instead of going up, what makes me believe that purchase prices are much higher than the average? That's interesting. Um, yeah. H-C-T-N-I would love for us to spend the time to look at your portfolio together and to look at your property valuation. not often that we see a property value going down instead of going up. So that, that would bear some, some more looking into. Especially because home prices have gone up so much especially in recent years. So let's, let's make sure that we were looking at the same number. So I would encourage you to, to set up some time to speak with our team. And then your next question is what makes you believe that purchase prices are higher than the average? I, you know, purchase prices are, I, I think what you're talking about is home prices are going to go up in the future. Yeah. You know, I'll just share the data, you know, the data home prices have gone up in Jacksonville last year, home prices in Jacksonville gone up 97 percent of years on record since 1982. Uh, So you need a lot to experience depreciation in housing, especially in a, in a growth market like Jacksonville. So, that's what I would tell you. It's most likely that home prices are going to go up in the future. It's because 97 percent of years that I would have said that since 1982, I would have been right. Yeah. And I wonder, you know, like what, what data are you looking at? Right. Like, how are you, how are I, you know, that I, I wanted to like call that out because I assume that there has to be a disconnect between like the data that HT is looking at You know, whatever's going on out there because I haven't heard of that either. So, all right, cool. So, two more trends. Number four from our friend, Fannie. Love it. National home prices, price growth will decelerate. What do you think about that, Juicy? Man, every opportunity we get to talk about something negative in housing, we use that for some reason. I, I don't get it. I don't get it. So, you know, national home price growth will decelerate. You know, when the talking heads were out there one year ago and they were talking about are home prices going to go up in 2024 or are they going to go down? What were they saying? They were saying real estate crash like they always do. Yeah, real estate crash is what they were saying. So then, deep in the article here for Fannie Mae, they talk about how home prices across the country went up 5. 8%. In 2024. Mm-hmm 5.8% after ex expecting a crash or whatever. Yeah. Correct. You know, so at no point are we gonna highlight that home prices cont continued to be resilient. Mm-hmm And even go up a, a, a, what I would call a relatively normal amount, and there was stabilization in this asset class. All of these things are true based on the data. No. Fannie, we chose to say home price growth is going to decelerate, which. Plays into the narrative out there that home values are going to go down. What Fannie Mae is predicting is that they're expecting a 3. 6 percent home price appreciation rate in 2025 across the country. So that's buried somewhere. And guys, listen, when you buy an asset that is Call it 250, 000, which is what a typical JWB home might be. When you experience 3. 4 percent home price appreciation on that, you're making like 10, a year. You're making like 000 a year, and you're only putting down, let's say, 50, 000. Now, I know that's a lot for folks, but what I'm trying to show is the return on the investment. Yep. From the home price appreciation. Yeah, the equity from the investment is huge. Right, I don't mean to diminish. The fact that that, that is a lot of money for some folks, but what I'm trying to show you is when we're talking about home prices decelerating, home prices growth decelerating, what they're really saying is they expect home values to go up about 4%. Home values going up about 4 percent in Jacksonville will put about 10, 000 to 12, 000 of additional profits in your pocket. So, like, that is a totally different way to write this prediction. Yeah, yeah. But, but, you know, that is bringing, data and, and perspective. So, yeah, so I think it's a great time to invest. I think it's a great time to buy and hold. Like I said last year which turned out to be a great time to invest the buy and hold yeah You know what? I don't understand is why in the first one that they talk about national prices. I said Local, you know your you know, the market will will vary right like when I think of national home prices Price growth decelerating. Okay, cool. But there's no such thing as a national real estate market, right? So like why don't we talk about market to market if what they're saying is true and it means that more markets will decelerate Then accelerate right and we know what we know about Jacksonville, which is MOI is still in a good shape There is still the hottest job, second hottest job market, according to the Wall Street Journal, the fastest rising median income in Florida, there's a massive influx of people that are moving here every single day. You know, I would, I would tend to assume that this is one of those markets that will stay either stable or, you know, or, or, or do better than the rest. And therefore, if what I'm concerned about is like, all right, cool. I'm an investor. Things are decelerating in some markets. Why don't I look for one that has. the attributes that's going to overperform the rest of the market. I would clearly look at Jacksonville and I would think, okay, then maybe this is an opportunity to 1031 exchange into a market that has more upside than the market that I'm in right now. Yeah. I just talked to a high school friend of mine reached out to me just yesterday. Actually, we got on the phone and he said, listen, I've been following you for a long time. You know, he and I have probably talked two or three times over the last 10 years, so really haven't stayed close. But he's like, man, I've been watching the show. I've been watching the videos and whatnot. So I was like, oh, cool. Yeah, that's cool. He's out there watching. Yeah, yeah, that's cool. That's pretty cool. Yeah, is he surprised to not see you playing sports on TV based on your athletic record in high school? Yeah, the sneaky part of my athleticism is very hidden down there. Yeah, I figured, yeah, yeah, yeah. Sneaky. You know, starter on the sophomore varsity basketball, or sophomore basketball team, Does not pull a lot of weight right here, you know. Anyways, so he's got a property in Mammoth, California. It's a, it's a mountain home. Loves it. Yeah, yeah. I love Mammoth, yeah. Got about a million bucks in equity. And he said, listen, I understand that my, my, my cash flow coming from it is not what it could be if I would take that million bucks and put it into, let's say, four rental properties in Jacksonville, just buying all cash. It's all cash. Yeah. Heck yeah. Yeah. I mean, that is a very, that is a very normal train of thought right now. And if it's not a normal train of thought and you have some equity in a, in a higher price market that doesn't have great cash flows, it should become a more normal train of thought because we can do so much more for your retirement by just repurposing those assets, taking that million dollars of equity in that mammoth helm. Putting it into either four or more properties in Jacksonville can meet more cash flow needs for my friend and then also set up his retirement. So yeah, so I just think, especially with the 1031 show we just did, I think we kind of like opened up that, that dialogue a little bit more and I hope clients pay attention to that, especially this year. Yeah, I would tell your friend that he wants to just have like a live show at his house. I'm happy to go do it and go ski with him. That sounds good, man. It's a nice mountain, man. I've been out there. We have a not travis guest asking if this recording will be posted. Yeah. If you go to the YouTube page of, if you look for not travis investor show on YouTube right now, this recording is we're going live on YouTube right now. So if you came in late, you can go back to the beginning right now. We post, edited recording next week as well. So yes, not your average guest. last prediction from my friend, Fanny. Multifamily housing will remain in a holding pattern. What do you think about that? Yeah, I agree. You know, what single family rents are growing in Jackson, like I've talked about, While multi family rents have actually had price declines last year. Prices of rents for multi family actually declined about 4 percent in Jacksonville. so that's interesting. You know, we have talked a lot about liquidity. And many times people have said in real estate, well that's a downside to invest in real estate. We, and largely you kind of pointed this out was that, Hey, liquidity can be a great thing. If you're looking for consistency of returns, something that might not just be able to be bought and sold like this is a good thing. I'll also share with you that something that takes a long time to build in order to solve a supply problem leads to consistency. It leads to a high floor of pricing. And the interesting thing is people a lot of times will say, Oh, listen, I'm only going to buy single families to get to the, my multifamily because I want to be a multifamily or apartment investor. And they don't understand that there's different risks. And I think last year when we're talking about rents is a great example of the risks that are there for multifamily versus single family. And on the single family side, you have a supply problem. And it started after the great recession when we stopped building houses and it's going to continue through 2025. Because it takes a long time to build houses. Well, in multifamily, we also had a supply problem. And then in 2020, when COVID hit, and all this cheap money started getting to play, and Wall Street wanted, and private equity wanted to get into more apartments, they flooded the market with money. They built a ton of apartments in Jacksonville and in other places in the country, and they solved the supply problem real quick. And the reason why multifamily rents have gone down is because there has been a flood of supply. So actually, in single family, it's more risk mitigated when it comes to the supply problem simply because it takes a long time to build a hundred homes versus one project that brings a hundred doors in multifamily. There you go, man. yeah, thanks for, thanks for calling that out. It's, it's the idea that we all, we all love liquidity, but liquidity also comes with volatility, right? Like, and, you know, when it comes to buy and hold investing and what we're doing here, you know, sometimes it is, sometimes it's better to have less liquidity. Yeah. And this idea of being able to bring, bring forward a thousand multifamily units versus a thousand homes is a very different equation in the city, which Allows for less volatility as well. Cool. All right, you see, that was a good job there, buddy. Do you have, do we have a little bit of extra time to jam through some of these questions? Let's do it. Still got a hundred people here. So, all right, cool. Garrison Collier is asking, Have you ever had someone open an LLC, start building business credit for investing, then use that business credit to buy property? Seems like you don't need to be making a big income to do this? You know, I don't know that answer off the top of my head. Nothing comes to my mind off the top of my head, but I really like where you're going, Garrison. I would encourage you to get on the phone with my team and talk through that. Uh, just because something doesn't come to my mind, you know, we serve about 1800 clients and they all have wonderful stories. And I have, we have been able to come up with some really great solutions to help them buy their first or their 10th rental property. So that might be something that we have some experience with. What you'll want to do is go to the text number. To schedule a time to speak with the team, 904 293 0341. 904 293 0341. There you go. Got it, got it. I like how Garrison is thinking of, you know, most people think that the Capitol is like the hardest thing to get in, right? But there's tons of creative ways to find the Capitol. 100%. Mohan Poteri says, Can we look at the average days the houses are taking to get sold as the measure of demand instead of months of inventory? It's another good metric to look at, Mohan. I'm glad you brought that up, right? And this is something we were, we report on, on our quarterly real estate market update as well. Top of mind, I think our average days on market for Jacksonville was somewhere around low forties. if I remember which is very normal for a market. Again, another great measurement to show that the real estate market in Jacksonville is doing just fine. Home values are going up, days on market is, you know, well within normal range, around 40. And so good things for you to know to combat maybe some of the negative narratives you're hearing out there. Cool. Roger Evans asks, What's the prediction for homeowners insurance costs? especially after the two major hurricanes that hit Florida in 2024. I see, I see a little grin on your face. Roger. I have some really good data. You know, maybe what we'll do is we'll, we'll weave it into next week's show. Maybe breaking news. Cause I have some really good data to share with you, Roger on this long story short. We've actually seen more insurance companies file for price declines this year than we have seen in a long time. And, you know, our, our wonderful insurance teammate, Whitney Ritchie, who runs the Ritchie Insurance Group, shared with us that, listen, these insurance companies are prepared for storms. We happened to get two major hurricanes in Florida that hit. Well, insurance companies are, prepared for that, either through, you know, Their normal preparation or through what's called reinsurance. And she kind of taught the, taught us how that works a little bit. so the, the storms should not be the big catalyst for large increases, according to Whitney. We're actually seeing these insurance companies file for decreases, which is a good sign. We're seeing insurance companies actually making money again. We're seeing more re enter the market. This is a good thing for all of us. So I don't have a prediction as far as what insurance rates will do coming into 2025, but I think stabilization. I think that's what we can expect. And we've seen that really for call it the better part of the last six to 12 months as well. Yeah. Roger. The other side of that story is he's saying that insurance don't, you know, insurance companies know how to like account for storms and what they're doing, what they didn't know how to account for. Where these like frivolous lawsuits that happened because of a loophole that opened up. That's what caused all this like, rise that happened. That has been stopped about two years ago, right? Like Whitney herself and a group of other people went up there, lobbied, closed that loophole. And what we're seeing in Florida is new carriers coming into the market. And that's what's pushing down. prices because there's more supply. Absolutely. BJ McKay has a, has a question here. Is Greg handing out signed wall street journal covers that JWB was on to customers? Hey, me, what do you, do you have a prediction for that GC? Man, when that happened the first time, I think I bought like 300 of them and I gave them to my mom and my dad and you know, you know, Listen, that was like in 2011, so we didn't, I mean, relatively speaking, we didn't have a whole lot of people that believed in us, like, like we're blessed to have right now. So I shared them with everybody that I could that was sharing in our success in 2011. Man, I can't find them though. I went to go and look for them. I know they're somewhere in my house. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I don't know. I'll see if I can, see if I can find one. Come on to the summit, man. We'll see what we can do. We'll see what we can do. We'll see what we can do. Alright, GC Good job, Ben. Yeah, it's great. Good job preparing for that. I like the takes that you had prepared for this stuff, the, the five predictions, the, you know, railing against this idea that retirement, the new retirement is not retiring. We're going to talk more about this idea of what just one property can do to like mitigate that giant trend that's happening to most folks that are going into retirement these days in the special webinar that we're doing with Fortune Builders on Thursday. What time is that at? 2. 30 on Thursday? 2. 30. Did you see? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So. If you haven't had a chance to register, register, register for that. Loved seeing a hundred plus folks with us here today. We do not take for granted that this is the middle of a work day on a Tuesday that you're making time as you're coming back to work after the holidays to hang out with us. That just really, really fills our bucket. The questions that you ask are everything. The friendships that are made in this chat are really what this is about. That's why we get to have a hundred plus events that, that sell out and stuff like that. Right. So just really, really grateful to have you all back here in the new year. Anything that you want to say, GC? No, can't, can't wait to take this. The excitement of this show into this year into next week as we open up summit registration again just it's gonna be a great year guys. So thank you guys for being here next week after the special webinar on tuesday What we are having is The JWB State of the Union. You got a sneak preview of it today, G. C.? That's right. Anything we have to look forward to? Lots. Lots. I took like 16 pages of notes as our leaders and our team were sharing the different different things that we're going to be accomplishing as a team for, for you as clients, for our residents, for our community. So very, very excited to share that with you next week. Yeah. So it's titled The Market Outlook and JWB State of the Union. JWB is obviously the market leader here in Jacksonville. Their data, their reports, their assumptions is how most. Real estate investors here locally look up to them and follow that suit, right? So you get a front front row seat into what they're thinking, the assumptions they're making, the performance from last year, what they see happening next year, how they're making decisions. So it's essentially the Jacksonville real estate market report. Can't wait to do it. GC from here until then, any advice for our friends that joined us this week, don't be average. See you next time.